Sunday, July 13, 2014

Free Agency Fit and Fever

NBA Free Agency is now in full swing. With LeBron and Carmelo signing with Cleveland and NY their log jam for the rest of the free agents is gone, and teams are in a mad scramble to round out their roster with big signings. Here's what has happened since LeBron and Melo made their decisions:
(sources used: basketball.realgm.com)

F Chris Bosh resigned for big money with Miami
G Isaiah Thomas was signed and traded to the Phoenix Suns  
F Pau Gasol announced he will sign with the Bulls
F Trevor Ariza agreed to terms with Houston
F Paul Pierce signed with the Wizards
F Luol Deng signed with the Heat
F Chandler Parsons signed with the Mavericks

Chandler Parsons was a restricted free agent signed by the Mavericks. With the signing of Trevor Ariza, Houston decided against matching the 3 year 46 million dollar offer sheet. Parsons is now officially a Dallas Maverick. 

Here are the high impact free agents still on the market: 
G Eric Bledsoe RFA (Suns) 
F/C Greg Monroe RFA (Pistons)
G Lance Stephenson UFA (Pacers)
G Dwayne Wade UFA (Heat)
G Ray Allen UFA (Heat)
G Mike Miller UFA (Grizzlies)

G Eric Bledsoe RFA (Suns)

Bledsoe is one of the leagues most dynamic young combo guards and is seeking (and will probably receive) close to a max contract in free agency this summer. Bledsoe is restricted, so even if another team signs him to an offer sheet, the Suns will be able to retain him. Eric should return to the Suns. Jeff Hornacek has already proved that his dual combo guard lineup of Bledsoe and Dragic is lethal, and with the acquisition of G Isaiah Thomas from the Kings, this could be the most wicked backcourt in the entire league. Teams that should be interested in the guard include: Atlanta, Miami, LAL, Milwaukee, and Dallas. 
If the Suns sign Bledsoe they will have an upgraded and deep roster
G: Eric Bledsoe, Isaiah Thomas
G: Goran Dragic, Gerald Green
F: PJ Tucker, Tyler Warren
F: Markief Morris, Marcus Morris
C: Miles Plumlee, Alex Len
Phoenix would be ten players deep and could maybe make even more moves in the coming weeks to restock for a playoff campaign. 
Atlanta should try to sign Bledsoe to team him up with excellent guard Jeff Teague in the backcourt.
Miami needs a young star to build around and Bledsoe could be that guy.
Dallas has money and if they lose out on Parsons Bledsoe could be a good replacement on a talented roster.
Milwaukee is on the rise by adding Jabari Parker and Jason Kidd. Bledsoe would only add to that. 
The Lakers have been the biggest losers in free agency and are on the brink of desperation. 

F/C Greg Monroe RFA (Pistons)

Another restricted free agent, Greg Monroe has proved himself as a top big men in the league. Detroit tried and failed to play Josh Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond on the court at the same time. I don't believe that they can afford to sign all three to large deals if one has to always bee on the bench. My gut tells me that he is going to garner a large deal and will be leaving the Pistons. 
Teams that are interested include: Atlanta, Detroit, Orlando, and Portland

Portland has already signed Chris Kaman to back up Robin Lopez at the center position so I don't think they are viable, but a starting front court of Aldrige and Monroe would be a scary pairing for a team that already made the second round of the Western Conference playoffs. 

Orlando is very intriguing and I would argue the best fit. With the departure of Arron Afflalo, Orlando is in need of a star player to build around. By drafting Elfrid Payton they will start him alongside second year guard Victor Oladipo in one of the youngest and most exciting back courts in the league. F Aaron Gordon drafted fourth overall is a very raw player, and will probably need a year before he starts making a large impact. Orlando already signed Channing Frye, sharp shooting power forward, from Phoenix and paired him with Vucevic whom had a good 2013-2014 campaign. Signing Greg to take over at center could transform them into a playoff team in the weak Eastern Conference. 
G Elfrid Payton, G Victor Oladipo, F Maurice Harkless, PF Channing Frye, C Greg Monroe
Bench: Aaron Gordon, Nikola Vucevic, Ben Gordon

Detroit I'm just not sure about. Drummond needs to get paid, Josh Smith is getting paid, and putting that much salary space in three guys that can't even play on the court together just doesn't seem like a good idea. I think the Pistons would be better served signing Lance Stephenson. 

Atlanta I don't see as a player either. They have Horford and Milsap which is an all star duo in the front court, and Jeff Teague at the point. They have a bunch of three point shooters and I think they should use their salary cap space like Detroit in search of another guard or swing forward that can shoot and score off the dribble. 

G Lance Stephenson UFA (Pacers)

I don't believe Lance is coming back. The Pacers are holding pat at about ten million a year-which is what he should get paid-but in a league desperate for good shooting guards Lance has the opportunity to get paid in the 12 to 13 million dollar range. 
Teams interested include: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Dallas, Pacers, LAL
The Lakers don't seem to be a player. Kobe is still going to be around for two years and Lance is smarter than to take a back seat to a player like him. 

Indiana doesn't seem ready to give him the contract he wants, but could always change their minds and give him the contract. 

Chicago is readying to use the rest of their salary cap space to sign Pau Gasol, and are perfectly fine moving forward with Jimmy Butler at shooting guard. 

Dallas is still waiting to see if Houston matches their 3 year 46 million dollar offer sheet for Chandler Parsons. If Houston matches they become a player. This would be a very good fit for Lance and they have the money to give him the contract he wants. Pairing him with Monta and Dirk on the perimeter with newly reacquired Tyson Chandler defending the rim would be an upgraded team from last season that already nearly made it into the second round. 

Charlotte would be the most best fit. With their name change back to the Hornets, sweet new jerseys, and young and cool lineup, Charlotte is my pick at this season's coolest team. Putting him with Kemba Walker would be one of the most exciting back courts in the league. They are already anchored by NBA Third team Al Jefferson at Center. Have a franchise point guard in Kemba Walker. Athletic young swingman Kidd-Gilchrist and with additions of Vonleh to replace McRoberts at the four and PJ Hairston scoring off the bench, this should be an improved team that makes the second round in the Eastern Conference. 
PG Kemba Walker, SG Lance Stephenson, SF Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, PF Noah Vonleh, C Al Jefferson
Bench:  Gerald Henderson, Cody Zeller, Chris Douglas-Roberts 

Boston seems unlikely. If they make the deal for Kevin Love and then bring in Lance they would have a good core in Rondo, Stephenson, and Love, but wouldn't crack the top four in the east. My prediction is that Boston misses out on Love, and trades Rondo and Jeff Green to go into full rebuilding mode. 

Atlanta desperately needs a scoring wing. They are set with Horford at the top and Teague at the point. Milsap is their all star scoring threat and helps open up the floor for their many shooters, but another athletic swingman in Stephenson would be a good signing. 

Dwayne Wade UFA (Heat)
He's going back to the Heat. 

G Ray Allen UFA (Miami) 

Any playoff team could use this sharp shooting veteran. If he decides to postpone retirement, he'll be wielding offers from many teams after free agents like Stephenson and Parsons are off the block. 

G Mike Miller UFA (Memphis)

Mike Miller has a lot of interested in joining James in Cleveland. Similar to Ray he will resign with a playoff team. A few days or a week from now we will better know what teams still have enough cash to sign him. 

That's it for this update on Free Agency Fit and Fever. Expect more coming in the next few days as dominoes continue to fall.

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